Division Races Abound.

Much like the weather of late, it appears the divisional races in Major League Baseball are really heating up. Of baseball’s six divisions, five have leaders who are 2.5 games or less ahead of the second place team. This late in the season, only the AL West appears to be out of reach as the Rangers have a 7.5 game lead with 48 left to play. That division aside, this season looks to be leading up to one of the most memorable closing months in recent memory.

• The AL East is in my opinion once again the most competitive division in baseball. While the division title is thought to be a two horse race (Yankees lead the Rays by 1.5 games), the Red Sox are not out of contention. While the Sox are 5 games back, they have 6 games remaining against both the Yankees and Rays putting them in a position to control their own destiny. Couple that with 18 games against lackluster competition, (6 vs Seattle, 6 vs Baltimore 3 vs Oakland) and the Sox could possibly garner a wild card berth. On the other hand, to do that they would need to defeat the Rays and Yankees which has been a struggle for them this season as they have a record of 24-23 in the division. The Rays will likely falter in their quest to win the division but should win the wild card. They have neither the bats nor arms necessary to catch the Yankees, but should be able to hold off the Red Sox as they have a record of 13-5 against them this season. However, if they Rays remain only 1.5 games behind the Yankees heading into October, the chances of them stealing the division lead increase significantly. While the Yankees will be battling perennial rival Boston in Boston the final weekend of the season, the Rays will be facing the abysmal Royals at home which is definitely a matchup in the Rays favor. Ultimately however, I expect the Yankees to be the division champs. CC Sabathia (14-5) is yet again performing at a high level late in the season and has a 3.34 ERA over his last 5 starts. Andy Pettite (11-2) is still old reliable was the Yankees 2nd best pitcher (2.88 ERA) until going on the DL July 19 and should be back in the rotation by the start of September. The Yankees also have a plethora of talented hitters with no perceptible weak spot in their lineup. As such, they should be able to wrap up the division and head into the ALDS with confidence.

• The AL Central may not have as many teams in contention as the AL East, but its divisional race is just as intense. Currently, the division lead is held by both the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins. Like years past, the final month of the season will be played with the utmost urgency and the team who loses will likely miss the playoffs. Picking a winner in this division is more complex as no team is clearly more talented than the other. The Twins play exceptional defense and have the highest fielding percentage in baseball, however the White Sox are more than adequate and are ranked 10th in fielding efficiency. The team’s batting averages are an exact mirror of the fielding stats with the Twins leading baseball with at .281 and the White Sox 10th at .262. The Twins do seem to outscore the White Sox however as they have 565 runs to the Sox’s 524. The White Sox however put the ball into play more than the Twins and have only struck out 597 times to the Twins 660. The White Sox also steal more bases (107) than the Twins (44), as well as hit more homers (131-105 respectively). On the mound, the teams are nearly identical as the Sox sport a 3.87 ERA and the Twins a 3.95. Who wins this division will likely come down to who they play the remainder of the season. If it indeed comes down to quality of competition, look for the twins to win this slugfest. The of the Twins 48 remaining games, 21 are against inferior opponents such as the Royals, Mariners, and Athletics while the White Sox have 18 against the equally inferior Royals, Indians and Orioles. That’s a three more games the Twins should win with no question so I give the edge to them.

• In the NL West, numerically the Giants still have a shot at catching the Padres as they are only 2.5 games back. However, from watching the teams play this season I am fairly confident the Padres will walk right into the playoffs. On the mound, the Padres sport two double digit win hurlers (Garland & Latos) while the Giants only have one (Lincecum). The Padres also convert a slightly higher percentage of their save opportunities (76%) than the Giants (74%). The teams fielding percentages are nearly identical (Padres .989, Giants .990) so defensively there is no gap, but at the plate the Giants are simply better. They outrank the Padres in runs, homers, batting average, and RBI’s. Unfortunately for them, baseball in the NL tends to be about small ball and the Padres dwarf the Giants when it comes to stolen bases with 94 to the Giants 45. The Giants have a shot, but I think the Padres will carry this one. It just seems to be their year and I’m sure they fans there as well as 1B Adrian Gonzalez are saying it’s about time.

• The NL Central is another close one. The Cardinals of St. Louis lead the Cincinnati Reds by only one game. However, that lead is in place because the Cards recently swept the Reds in a three game series. Despite trailing the Reds in the standings for much of the season, the Cards have actually owned the Reds this season beating them 10 times in 15 games. With six games remaining against the most pedestrian team in baseball (Pittsburgh Pirates) and two Cy Young caliber starting pitchers (Wainwright & Carpenter) don’t look for the Cardinals to relinquish this lead anytime soon.

• The race I have the most personal interest in is the NL East. As sports fanatics, we often admire and respect individuals who are associated with our favorite ball clubs and are saddened when those figures leave the game. Such are my feelings toward Braves skipper Bobby Cox. I’ve been a Braves fan since the young guns era of Smoltz, Glavine, and Avery and this year’s return to prominence has excited me not only because my team is once again a quality club, but because it allows Mr. Cox to go out in the ever elusive blaze of glory. Trying to derail that possibility is the absolutely loaded Philadelphia Phillies. With the recent addition of Roy Oswalt, the Phillies are not only better than the Braves at the plate, but on the mound. In a three game series, opposing hitters now have to face Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels and that’s a scary thought. The Phillies have been chipping away at the Braves lead since early June but have not been able to close within two games as of yet. Look for the three game series starting September 20 in Philly to decide this one. The teams also close the season out in a three game series in October, though I think the race will be decided by that point.

The X-Factor in two of these races (AL East and AL Central) will be…the BALTIMORE ORIOLES. The Orioles have long been one of the worst teams in baseball but their recent resurgence under new manager Buck Showalter has the O’s 8-1 since his insertion on Aug 3, 2010. The O’s can affect the AL Central race because they have a three game series against the White Sox which could help the Twins should this improvement in the O’s play continue. As for the AL East, the O’s have 6 games remaining against each of the three contenders for the AL East crown. As I said before, this should be one of the most memorable endings to a season in a very long time.