NFL Preview 1-5

Well ladies and gentlemen, there are officially 49 days remaining before the start of the NFL Regular Season. With the first NFL training camps less than a week away, it seemed appropriate to dedicate this installment of SportsSpeak to a Preseason NFL Power Ranking. Starting with…

The Cream of the Crop:
1) Indianapolis Colts- The Colts make #1 on this list for one simple reason, and that reason can be found calling audibles behind Jeff Saturday on Sundays. In other words, Peyton Manning! Manning has been the premier QB in the league for the better part of a decade now.
Since 2000, Manning has coupled an average of 31 TDs with an average passer rating of 98.57 against 14 INTs making him truly elite. However, the Colts are not without complimentary weapons. The Colts armory also includes talented perennial Pro Bowlers Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. Clark and Wayne are near, if not the top of the producing players in the NFL at their respective positions. Clark continually haunts the nightmares of Defensive Coordinators because he’s too big to cover with the average and above average Safety, and too quick to be stopped by the average Linebacker. Wayne on the other hand, has effortlessly stepped into the role of No. 1 receiver following the departure of Marvin Harrison. Wayne is a truly elite receiver who can run any route and make any adjustment needed to give his QB the best passing lane to exploit. Defenses have to account for these two and that makes Manning all the more deadly because it opens up holes for receivers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Couple that with the fact that steady option Anthony Gonzalez returns from last year’s injury, and the Colts’ offense is more loaded than the 2009 edition.

The Colts defense is nearly as lethal, if not as talented, as their offensive counterparts. Due to either a remarkable scouting evaluation or a simple stroke of luck, the Colts made one of the better draft picks in recent memory by selecting Pro Bowler Antoine Bethea in the sixth round of the 2006 draft. Bethea has emerged into one of the better safeties in the NFL. Also on the defensive side are underrated LB Gary Brackett and whirling dervish Dwight Freeney. Brackett has averaged 112 tackles over the last 5 seasons and is to the defense what Manning is to the offense. While he may not call his own plays like Manning, he does control the huddle and calls audibles when fit. Freeney for lack of a better term is a beast. He frequently annihilates opposing Offensive Tackles and has frequent backfield meetings with opposing Quarterbacks. The Colts drafter arguable the best sack artist in this year’s draft (Jerry Hughes) which should decrease the number of double teams Freeney sees on Sundays. The Colts appear to be as cerebral as ever and have even more weapons than usual, which is bad news for the rest of the league.

2) Baltimore Ravens- For years the Ravens have featured an elite defense teamed with an offense that was adequate at best. Last year however, while the defense was yet again tops in the league, the offense evolved into a dynamic unit which averaged 24 ppg and was ranked 13th best offense in the league. In the upcoming season, the defense should once again be stellar as they return the majority of last years starters along with the draft day additions of outstanding collegiate LB Sergio Kindle and Nose Tackle Terrance “Mt.” Cody. Kindle was widely regarded as a first class talent with better skills than rookie pro bowler Brian Orakpo had coming out of Texas. Placing him in a position to be mentored in the nuances of the game by arguably the best Inside Linebacker ever (Ray Lewis) is as close to a performance enhancement he could get without violating the league’s drug policy. Haloti Ngata is in my opinion the best Nose Tackle in the NFL , however he possess more than enough athleticism to be successful as a defensive end should the Ravens decide to push Cody into the starting Nose Tackle slot. That would give the Ravens two 300+ lbs mountains of flesh to clear the downhill lanes for Lewis and company.

The offense on the other hand should take another step in its evolution as they now have a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Anquan Boldin. While Boldin was overshadowed in Arizona by the apparent dominance of Larry Fitzgerald, he has averaged 7 TDs and 83 receptions at a 12.8 ypc clip over his seven year career. His arrival along with the return of Derrick Mason and Todd Heap means Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron and QB Joe Flacco have plenty toys to play with. While the Ravens will have the ability to seemingly pass at will, Todd Heap is still a very viable option at tight end, their calling card has always been the running game. With an astounding committee of runners including Ray Rice as the primary back, the Ravens should have no problem playing grind it out football when the situation calls for it. With an superb defense, excellent running game, and opportunistic passing…the Ravens have the prototypical formula required for NFL regular season and post season success.

3) New York Jets- For years Jets’ fans have been forced to dwell in NFL purgatory. They have watched their front office make blunder after blunder in the NFL Draft (Kyle Brady as a 9th pick, please) as well as watch their coaches prove inept. However, that all changed with the Jets emergence last season. Rex Ryan, while always an extraordinary coordinator, proved that he is also an extremely talented head coach. From his classic media shenanigans to his defensive gameplans, Ryan has tamed the beast known as the New York media while maintaining his skills as a gridiron tactician. One of the primary tools to his defensive genius is none other than Darrelle Revis. Not since Deion Sanders has there been a corner this skilled at eliminating the oppositions primary receiver. Against Pro Bowl receivers Andre Johnson, Randy Moss (2 games), Steve Smith (Panthers), and Roddy White, Revis only allowed an average 3.6 receptions per game at a 7.2 ypc clip with 1 TD. To put that in perspective, White is the least prolific receiver in that group and his average for the season was 13.6 ypc. That means Revis held the other the other receivers at more than 6.4 yards under their per catch average in addition to limiting their number of catches. Revis’ dominance allows Ryan to think up more exotic blitz packages to confuse and dumbfound opposing Quarterbacks because he doesn’t have to worry about double teaming the other team’s best receiver.

On offense however, the Jets are a little suspect. Running Back Shonn Green does seems poised to impress in his new role as the Jets’ feature back, but the acquisition of eventual hall of famer LaDainian Tomlinson doesn’t make much sense to me. By cutting ties with Thomas Jones and picking up LT, the Jets basically traded an old, albeit effective back for an older back declining in production and with less tread on his tires. On the other hand, LT should be an upgrade in the passing game as he has excellent hands and is perhaps the best pass blocking back in the league. Two things must happen for the Jets to reach their offensive potential this season, first Mark Sanchez must limit his turnovers (20 INTS and 3 lost fumbles last season) and second, Braylon Edwards has to develop more focus (16 drop unofficially in 2009). If that happens, look for the Jets to go at least one game further than they did in 2009 and play for the Championship.

4) Green Bay Packers- For years conventional thought has been that you don’t want to be the guy follows the legend, you want to be the guy who follows the guy who followed the legend. Apparently, Aaron Rodgers didn’t get that memo. Since taking the huddle from Brett Favre in 2008, Rodgers has totaled 58 touchdowns compared to 20 interceptions and has an average passer rating of 98.5. Over that time only Phillip Rivers, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning have a higher average passer rating. Rodgers has become the unquestioned leader of this team leading them to playoff berth last season as the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the NFL. Rodgers targets include steady if not spectacular targets, Wide Receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Jennings and Driver combined for 138 receptions and 10 of Rodgers 30 TD passes last season. Also among the targets at Rodgers’ disposal is emerging Tight End Jermicheal Finley. Finley impressed last season with 55 catches for 676 yds and 5 TDs, placing him 12th in the league among TE’s in receptions and touchdowns. The primary hindrance to the Packers offense last year was a lack of consistency in their Offensive Line play. Well that’s not entirely accurate, the O-Line play was consistent…it was just consistently bad. The packers have taken steps to rectify this shortcoming however with the addition of three offensive linemen this offseason including blue chip prospect Bryan Bulaga. Bulaga is a massive (6’5” 314 lbs), explosive (27” vertical jump), powerful (26 bench repetitions) tackle who should prove capable of protecting Rodgers’ blindside for years to come.

Defensively, the Packers should prove more than adequate if not impressive. Last year’s unit finished the season ranked 2nd in overall defense and 7th in scoring defense. While the secondary remains long in the tooth (starting Cornerbacks Woodson and Harris are 33 and 35 respectively), they played exceptionally well last season leaving no reason to doubt they will perform less than adequately this season. The only notable departure from the unit is DE/OLB Aaron Kampman. Kampman’s departure shouldn’t hurt the Packers however as he only played 9 games last season and was never really comfortable in a 3-4 alignment. Nick Barnett recovered from a disappointing 2008 campaign by racking up 105 tackles and 4 sacks in 2009 as opposed to 49 tackles and 0 sacks in 2008. Last year’s impressive rookie LB Clay Matthews should be able to improve on his tackle numbers from 2008 (51) while continuing to develop his pass rushing ability (10 sacks in 2008). The Packers appeared poised for a run at the divisional title. With the Lions still rebuilding and Jay Cutler whining more with every interception, the Cheeseheads only competition seems to be the Vikings. With improved O-Line play and Rodgers’ continued development, the Packers may be ready to completely exorcise the memory of old number 4.

5) Dallas Cowboys- The Dallas Cowboys have a realistic shot at accomplishing a feat not yet achieved in the NFL. Hosting, and playing in the same Super Bowl. With a prolific offense and a stingy defense, the Cowboys are one of the truly elite teams in the NFL. Offensively the Cowboys are full of options. They have a three headed monster at Running Back as complete as any in the league, a Pro Bowl Quarterback , an exceptional Tight End, and a breakout Wide Receiver. The Cowboys have, in my opinion, the best running back committee in the NFL. They have a bruiser in Marion Barber, a speedster in Felix Jones, and a do everything in Tashard Choice. While none of these backs reached the prestigious 1,000 yrd mark individually, they totaled over 1.900 yrds and 13 TDs cumulatively. In Choice, they have a back capable of running between the tackles, run outside, block in the passing game, and be effective as a receiver in the passing game. Choice has also shown a penchant for playing big against quality competition. In 2008, he totaled ran for 91 yds on 17 carries for a 5.3 average and a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens in a game critical to the Cowboys playoff hopes that year. He has 36 receptions in two seasons at an average of 8.8 ypc. While Choice is what one would consider a jack of all trades, Jones is a master of one, the big play. In his career (20 games thus far), Jones has 8 rushes of 20 yards or more and 5 of 40 yards or more. His explosiveness is not limited to the running game however, as he has 4 kick returns of 40 yards or more in his two seasons. Jones has bulked up a bit this season which should reduce the time he spends on the injured list. As for Barber, this year he should return to his specialized role of closer. No back has proven better at punishing defenders late in games than Barber has when healthy. He is arguably the toughest back in the league, constantly plays hurt, and has a nose for the goal line. In his five year career, Barber has amassed 43 rushing touchdowns and 6 receiving touchdowns for an average of over 9 TDs per year. Also responsible for Barber’s receiving TDs is QB Tony Romo. Romo finished last season 3rd in the league in passing yards, 6th in INTs, and 10th in TDs. His passer rating ranked in the top 10 (97.6) and with Miles Austin expected to continue his development, Romo should have an even better season this year. Austin and TE Jason Witten were Romo’s primary targets last year as No. 2 receiver Roy Williams continued to struggle in Big D. Austin and Witten accounted for 177 receptions and 13 TDs last year. Williams’ status as the No. 2 receiver is in question this season with the arrival of potential draft day steal Dez Bryant. At 6’2” 225 and running a 4.4-4.5 40, Bryant is the prototypical receiver. Rumblings out of Dallas have Bryant impressing daily which means Romo should have yet another quality set of hands to which he can throw to.

While Dallas’ offense should improve from last season’s numbers, the defense should at least be able to maintain last year’s numbers. The Cowboy defense finished the year ranked in the top 10 in total defense while finishing 2nd in scoring defense. The unit amassed 42 sacks to go along with 11 INTs which should only go up with the improved health of stalwart DeMarcus Ware. Ware is considered one of the best OLBs in the league for good reason. Since entering the league, he has averaged nearly 13 sacks per season including 20 in 2008. He’s also proven himself effective in pass coverage with 18 pass deflections in his 5 year career. Rushing the QB alongside Ware will be Pro Bowl Nose Tackle Jay Ratliff. Ratliff is also a five year pro and has amassed 21.5 sacks in his career thus far which is exceptional for a nose tackle. Ratliff’s ability to put pressure on the opposing O-Line should allow LBs Keith Brooking and Bradie James to roam free yet again. The duo totaled 219 tackles last season along with 5 sacks. Behind the front seven however, the Cowboys may be in trouble. They appear set at cornerback with Terrance Newman, Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick serving as the starting and nickel corners, but safety is a different tale. Gerald Sensabaugh is a serviceable asset at Strong Safety but the Free Safety position appears to be in flux. Alan Ball is currently the only FS on the roster which begs the question of why Jerry Jones didn’t pursue an upgrade in the form of NY Giants Antrelle Rolle or St. Louis Rams Oshiomogho Atogwe when both players were looking for suitors earlier this offseason. The FS situation aside, the Cowboys are team loaded with talent and potential. However, as an old coach of mine once said, potential is only talent you haven’t done anything with yet. That being the case, I’m sure Cowboys fans are hoping that the team utilizes more talent, than potential.



Tomorrow I will be discussing the Runner Ups and Middle of the Pack Teams, with the Tail Enders and the Bottom of the Barrel coming Thursday.